A weak low pressure system will move through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The system will bring in a lot of gulf moisture and has the strong energy typical of a spring storm, with a significant chance of severe weather today in Louisiana, Arkansas, and Alabama. As the storm moves east from Chicago to the Ohio river valley tonight, precipitation will move closer to the region.
A surface low will develop along the NJ coast late Sunday night into Monday morning. The city and coastal sections of Connecticut and Long Island will receive a mix of snow, rain, sleet. Points north and west of the city will experience mostly snow. Current temperatures are in the teens and low 20s so there is quite a bit of cold air at the surface right now. Tomorrow's low is forecast to be around 20 again. However, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30s by Sunday afternoon and the key to this system (for the city) will be whether persistant cold temperatures at the surface will yield snow or if warm air aloft will filter down to the surface and keeping the precipitation mixed. In almost all locations, the precipitation will start as a mix of ice, freezing rain, and plain rain. However, the National Weather Service predicts that by 9pm Sunday night, all locations will switch back to snow. The exact timing of the changeover to all snow is still uncertain and if it occurs too late, the coastal low may move out of the area too quickly to bring significant precipitation. Another scenario is that the temperatures fall below freezing and the storm slowly pulls out of the region more slowly. I am favoring the first scenario at this point. Therefore, I am predicting 1-2 inches of snow, sleet, and mix for the city and near suburbs, unless conditions change significantly in the next 24 hours. Rockland, Orange and Putnam counties should see 3-6 inches of snow.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement with further discussion on the impending storm.
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