A large system is currently developing. Right now, thunderstorms in the southern Louisiana and Mississippi delta are a pre-cursor to some severe winter weather that is headed in our direction later today and tomorrow. The current temperatures around the region are an interesting sign of things to come. Northern and eastern sections of the broadcast area are seeing high 40s (Greenwich - 45 degrees) and the city is reporting 60 degrees. This wacky spring weather will continue.
First, stage 1 of this massive spring storm...Today and tonight....
Showers develop this morning and turn into some heavier rain and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Coastal sections could see some flooding from this system. The current radar shows some strong thunderstorms from the system in upstate NY and a rain snow line in Canada moving east into western NY state. This system will move through the area during the day and tonight. We will see some rain and wind and temperatures falling dramatically during the day (60 right now, dropping through the 40s to mid 30s by tomorrow morning). Then things get interesting...
Stage 2...tomorrow and tomorrow night...
A strong coastal low will develop off the North Carolina coast near the Delmarva pennisula. Most of the main models forecast this low to stengthen and deepen during the day on Friday and then slowly move up the coast (accelerating as it reaches our area). See the picture on the right for a look at the GFS model (link - 6 panel) for 6AM saturday when this thing really gets cranked up. The storm is interesting, but the feature I want to point out is the high pressure that is located over Minneapolis, MN. This strong high pressure and northwest winds will filter in some very cold arctic air into the backside of the system and will change all precipitation on Friday and Friday night into snow and sleet. This will occur first north and west and then all locations 20 miles north/east of the Atlantic coast will start seeing all snow by mid day on Friday.
I expect that the northwest suburbs of NY City will see 6-12 inches (northern Rockland /Orange/Putnam). Inland New Jersey will also see 6 inches+. For the city, right now, I will hedge a bit and forecast that the changeover will occcur too late on Friday to bring 6"+, and will forecast 3-6". Look for a revision upward late today or tomorrow if a nice blocking high sets up south of Newfoundland and the storm tracks father east and pulls away more slowly than current forecasts predict.
Editor's note: I am a bit ambivalent on this one. I have a plane to catch on Saturday morning, and if all goes as forecast, my snow mood will be tempered by the fact that I am going to have to spend a long day in the airport!
First, stage 1 of this massive spring storm...Today and tonight....
Showers develop this morning and turn into some heavier rain and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Coastal sections could see some flooding from this system. The current radar shows some strong thunderstorms from the system in upstate NY and a rain snow line in Canada moving east into western NY state. This system will move through the area during the day and tonight. We will see some rain and wind and temperatures falling dramatically during the day (60 right now, dropping through the 40s to mid 30s by tomorrow morning). Then things get interesting...
Stage 2...tomorrow and tomorrow night...
A strong coastal low will develop off the North Carolina coast near the Delmarva pennisula. Most of the main models forecast this low to stengthen and deepen during the day on Friday and then slowly move up the coast (accelerating as it reaches our area). See the picture on the right for a look at the GFS model (link - 6 panel) for 6AM saturday when this thing really gets cranked up. The storm is interesting, but the feature I want to point out is the high pressure that is located over Minneapolis, MN. This strong high pressure and northwest winds will filter in some very cold arctic air into the backside of the system and will change all precipitation on Friday and Friday night into snow and sleet. This will occur first north and west and then all locations 20 miles north/east of the Atlantic coast will start seeing all snow by mid day on Friday.
I expect that the northwest suburbs of NY City will see 6-12 inches (northern Rockland /Orange/Putnam). Inland New Jersey will also see 6 inches+. For the city, right now, I will hedge a bit and forecast that the changeover will occcur too late on Friday to bring 6"+, and will forecast 3-6". Look for a revision upward late today or tomorrow if a nice blocking high sets up south of Newfoundland and the storm tracks father east and pulls away more slowly than current forecasts predict.
Editor's note: I am a bit ambivalent on this one. I have a plane to catch on Saturday morning, and if all goes as forecast, my snow mood will be tempered by the fact that I am going to have to spend a long day in the airport!
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