Active Pattern Continues - Near MIss Sunday, Better Chance for Snow ~Feb 20

Quick summary:

Some rain and snow showers this morning clearing by 1pm. Colder and windier tonight into tomorrow with highs in the mid 30s on Saturday and strong winds gusting to 25 mph. Snow showers Sunday morning and turning even colder early next week. After a period of rain/snow on Tuesday much colder with highs below freezing starting on Wed with unseasonably cold and dry weather which may last several days into next week as arctic air moves into much of the continental US.

Detailed forecast for Sunday snow chance.

Well it certainly has been eventful in the winter weather blog business and I have been watching another potential snow threat for Sunday into Sunday night. The models have had all sorts of difficulty with this one unlike the last storm which was fairly well placed on the Euro 5 days out and all the models in relative alignment by 36 hours. We are still 48 hrs+ away from this one and each model has its own solution in addition to the inherent variability within each model which is nicely captured by the ensemble (multiple solutions) that is always nicely presented by John Kassell as he did in this tweet which is now a bit stale because it was before the 06Z model runs.

At any rate, and I realize this post is at a slow and confusing rate at this point, my view is this is a non event Sunday. Hopeful snow enthusiasts are pointing to the recent NAM (North American model) runs which give the NY Metro a quick hit of 3" on Sunday starting some time in the early morning (7?) through about mid day. I am not buying it! Not only has the NAM vacillated between blockbuster snowstorm and nothing the last few runs but I also don't like where the surface low pressure forms and aligning that to the surface precipitation guidance. And the Euro has this thing too far south as well. My gut says this is a nothingburger. This google map shows the NAM and GFS tracks and they are 80-100 miles south of the 70/40 benchmark where we would typically see a blockbuster storm track.

Speaking of surface low location...you may hear a lot about "the benchmark" which is nothing more than a fancy way of saying 70 degrees north latitude and 40 degrees west longitude. During a 'typical' or 'ideal' nor'easter (if there is a thing) the surface low tracks over this magical lat long. Well this storm is forecasted to form and track about 100 miles south of the benchmark and it is also a quick mover. I have talked about the ingredients to form a nice snowstorm for NYC and quick moving and 100 miles south of the benchmark are not on that list. 

I would look out for some flurries and possibly a snow shower on Superbowl Sunday in the morning so if you are going to the grocery store, not only should you go early before they run out of chicken wings, you should go today to avoid the crowds but I don't think you need to stock up for this storm. 

And then we lock into a relatively dry pattern with a few clipper and relatively weak systems passing through but mostly south of us. There will be ample cold for snow but not enough energy for anything to really get cooking until mid month.