Models Vacillate, Forecasters Confused

 It's clear that a very strong storm will track up from the Carolinas somewhere off the eastern seaboard on Friday night into Saturday. It's also clear that parts of the northeast, especially coastal New England will feel the effects and heavy snow is likely. Beyond that, it's pretty much a crap shoot. Here is the latest modelology on this storm:

The best way to summarize this is there is a model battle between the GFS (American Global Forecasting System) and the rest of the models from around the world. The GFS takes this storm too far out to sea for NYC to really get snow (1-3") and the rest of the models (Euro, Canadian, UK, German, etc.) show a much more westerly track that could bring 12"+ (actually 18-24") to the NY Metro area. Many forecasters will choose a solution in the middle but I think it's important to note that the solution doesn't have to be somewhere in between. It could even be west of the Euro or east of the GFS...

The 06Z NAM which is less reliable than the 00Z brought the storm far West which is good if you are rooting for snow in NYC. Most people discount the NAM past 48 hrs though so wouldn't put too much stock in the 18-24" snow totals in NYC and W LI at this point...

I don't show the Euro but it continues to show a far west solution and absolutely clobbers NYC and LI with Snow. This is the most bullish model and it has been surprisingly consistent.

The RGEM also ticked West overnight in line with the Euro. 12-18" in NYC

The less followed ICON (German) also has a Westerly solution:

Also not shown the UKMET and Canadian have western tracks and very favorable for snow. So in summary unless you think the GFS really knows something t hat all of the other models don't I think a 6-12" snowfall is quite likely.