The Euro (euro medium range forecast model) which is dubbed the "king of all models" for nor'easters had this one hugging the coast and exploading into a classic "bomb" since earlier in the week.
The NAM - the most detailed of the models and dare I say most trusted by meteorologists at the national weather service had this storm pushed furthest east and well out to sea. This track would have given NYC some snow showers and kept the heavy snow confined to northern coastal new england and possibly rhode island, eastern conn, and the eastern tip of long island. Over the last 24 hours it has changed its tune and is now favoring a more west track.
Finally, the GFS produced a range of solutions that can be best described as "highly variable" with a mean between the two above but with such variability that it was difficult to trust. It has been consistently inconsistent with this solution for the last couple of days.
Now with the NAM showing a slower and more western solution and more in alignment with the other two, and being within 36 hours of this storm developing, I have some confidence that this storm will likely track this way. I am cautious because these types of storms tend to be binary events and in a moderately strong La Nina winter it would not surprise me if all of the models underestimate the general tendencies during these patterns for more southern, easterly tracks that bring us zippo.
I am expecting enough cold air to support all snow and some very healthy liquid ratios so we may be measuring this one in feet rather than inches. My current forecast is a 60% chance of a huge storm (12+ in) with a 30% of a complete bust (no snow) and 10% chance of a 2-4 inch accum in the "goldilocks" scenario. I wouldnt be surprised if the models change again in the next 24 hours so it looks like we will be "now"casting this one.
Latest 6Z NAM
GFS
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Location:Great Neck, NY
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