Friday Jan 7th Snow Potential - 3/10

On Monday I was excited for this potential nor'easter Friday. But the model guidance over the past couple of days has not been favorable. The Euro had a pretty major snowstorm for the entire NE I-95 corridor while the GFS took the storm out to sea. Yesterday, most of the models including the Euro trended toward a track too far east for a major snow for the I-95 cities. Some of the same areas that got snow on Monday like S NJ may get some accumulating snow so PHL is still in the mix but I think NYC is unlikely to get a big storm.

Overall, this is a low confidence forecast. It looks like a light 1-3" early Friday morning for most. It's a bit early to call, so here's a roundup of a few different views I liked from the blogosphere and TwitterWx:

I really like this overall analysis on weather.us from Miss State Junior & meteorologist Meghan Gulledge on the weather.us blog which I plan to follow going forward. She discusses the set up as well as low strength/positioning.

Tomer Burg did a microanalysis of the 0Z NAM (last night, 7PM) and how it has come into better agreement with the GFS model - his takeaway from this run is that the NAM is still in the middle of adjustments, and will likely continue to shift around with the 6z & 12z runs today (was tomorrow). This is in line with many other forecasters' view that the model guidance is by no means final and storm track still may wobble east and west. Don't lose hope and also don't get too glued on one scenario now.

eweather took a slightly different take on things looking at the CMC (Canadian) model. I like how that post reminds us that by looking at small but consistent changes like this model's consistent trend to a more south and east track can give us and forecasters more confidence that this is not a big one. Even when the Euro ("the King") and GFS ("Insert expletive/NSFW") are generally more accurate, they along with the NAM have wider ranges of uncertainty so looking across models and looking at the "trend is your friend".

Nsfwx did a great stream explaining how the position of some mid-level (500mb) energy and its position 50-100 miles N or S may determine the track. Meghan also noted this in her piece. His 4 yo daughter interrupts which is also super cute. I haven't checked it out yet but William has some new subscription service which is probably good for more in depth info as the winter progresses.

The first potential accumulating snow is always fun to watch, even when the models are all over the place and it doesn't look all that promising! Stay tuned...