Current Forecast:
Tonight: Clouds thicken, snow moves in between 3-6am
Tomorrow: Snow, mixing with freezing rain and sleet after 3pm, 1-3 inches of snow in the city, 2-4 inches east, 3-5 inches north and west
Tuesday night: Mixed precipitation of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain, less than half an inch of accumulation, Low 28
Wednesday: Freezing rain changes to rain around mid day, High near 35, 11-16MPH East wind, becoming Northwest. Turning colder.
Analysis:
A winter storm watch is in effect as a large and complex set of systems will move from the gulf coast into the Ohio valley tonight and then off the mid Atlantic coast and up to Cape Cod on Wednesday evening. The first bit of energy arrives tomorrow (Tues) early with enough cold air to deliver a couple of inches of snow. The second and more powerful piece of energy is in the four corners and will track east today and tomorrow before moving into the area on Wednesday. The track of this second storm will be west of the New York City which means that we will be on the warm side of the storm. It will bring us snow initially in all locations giving way to a mix of wintry precipitation and then freezing rain and then all rain by mid day on Wednesday. It will turn back to all snow on Wednesday night but right now we don’t expect significant accumulations after the changeover. We should see about 2-4 inches of snow in most areas before the changeover Tuesday night and Wednesday. Accumulations of both snow and ice will be highest north and west of the city in interior locations where more cold air is in place.
First wave of precipitation, Tuesday 1PM.
Fig 1: NYC is between the two blue lines which are 0C and -10C at 850mb (1,500 meters). The 0C line is generally the rain/snow line so we are all snow at this point.
Second shot on Wednesday afternoon (1pm):
Fig 2: The rain/snow line has moved north of the city and is about 20-30 miles inland from the Atlantic coast.
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